Is Black Friday Still Worth It? How to Decide

We've been running Black Friday promotions for clients for as long as Black Friday has existed in this part of the world. Back then it was a four-day sale, running Friday through to Cyber Monday. Now it's closer to a month, with early access, pre-sales, extended weekends and "last chance" extensions running well into December.

So it's not surprising that more of our clients are asking whether it's worth taking part at all. The noise is hard to get through. Competitors keep pushing their discounts higher just to land a sale. And after several years of tough economic conditions, a lot of businesses have little margin to give away.

We think those concerns are fair. We also think Black Friday is still worth it for most businesses, as long as you run it on your terms.

The numbers back up the doubt

Analysis of last year's Black Friday and Cyber Monday trading across Australian Shopify retailers shows the pressure clearly. Average discount rates rose around 46% on the year before. Margins tightened further than in 2024. Profit still grew, but more slowly than sales, so each sale cost more to win.

The volume is still there. It rewards the businesses that plan, and punishes the ones that copy whatever the competitor down the road is doing. Here's how we'd approach it.

Audit your database before anything else

Your existing customers are the cheapest sales you'll make. The same analysis found that acquiring a new customer cost around 40% more in ad spend than reactivating a recent buyer, and that over 60% of returning shoppers in November had bought within the previous six months. Email was also a meaningful channel in its own right, driving around 7% of orders.

So before you think about the offer, look at the list. Clean it up, remove the dead addresses, and segment it: VIPs, recent buyers, lapsed customers, and people who only ever buy on sale. Get your EDM and SMS flows built and tested well ahead of November. We work with both Klaviyo and Dotdigital, and the businesses that do best are the ones who've done this work early.

Work out the promotion, and what it needs

Decide what you want the promotion to achieve, then pick the mechanic to suit. Spend and save lifts basket size. Multi-buy moves specific ranges. A straight percentage off brings people in. A gift with purchase protects your pricing. Then check your site can run it cleanly, including overlapping offers, product exclusions, countdown timers and consistent pricing from the product page to checkout. On Cody, our Promotions module handles this, and we set up the same thing on Shopify.

That discipline shows up in the data too. Retailers who gave a blanket 30% when a smaller, targeted offer would have converted the same customer left money on the table. Every percentage point you don't give away is profit you keep.

Consider testing the offer first

If you're unsure what level of discount it takes, try it on a small group before the main push. Send the offer exclusively to your sale-only shoppers, the customers who rarely buy at full price.

You'll see quickly what moves them, and you can adjust before you commit your whole audience and your margin. It also gives you a reason to start early, which suits a sale season that now starts weeks before the main weekend.

Plan for after Cyber Monday

This is where most businesses stop, and it's where the real return sits. New customers acquired during Black Friday tend to have a higher average order value, but lower profit on that first order, because they came in on a discount. If they never buy again, the promotion probably cost you money. If they do, it paid off.

So plan the follow-up now. A welcome flow for new customers, a nudge towards a second purchase, replenishment reminders where they suit your products, and a steady run of content and offers through December and into the new year. Don't go quiet on 1st December.

And if it's not right for you?

Sometimes sitting out the discount race is the right call. If your margins can't absorb it, or your stock and fulfilment can't cope with the volume, a smaller campaign may serve you better. Early access for loyal customers works well, and so does adding value through a gift with purchase. What matters is that the decision is yours, made on purpose.

Black Friday is on 27th November, which gives you around seven weeks. If you want to run it, start with the database audit this week.

Need a hand getting your database, EDM flows or promotions module ready in time? Get in touch with the Blackpepper team and we'll help you plan it.